Great Expectations

A huge challenge for Philadelphia's future: "Not enough Philadelphians go to college. And not enough bright kids from elsewhere stay after getting diplomas," says Inquirer columnist Chris Satullo. Read the latest entry in The Challenges Ahead series: "More college grads are needed to spur an 'eds and meds' economy," along with "Ideas from elsewhere."

Satullo will be here on the blog from noon to 1 p.m. Nov. 2 to answer reader questions about "eds and meds" in Philadelphia and to talk about how the city could better retain its graduates.

Leave your questions or thoughts in the comments area.

I'm here and ready to hear what you have to say -- Chris Satullo

So, the big question among political insiders is not who is going to win tomorrow's election for mayor but by how much. And exactly how many voters will show up to vote?

Let me role out my prediction, for what it's worth, and feel free to add your own.

For starters, I think Nutter wins with 84% of the vote, with Al Taubenberger getting 16%. That will be a new record if it comes to pass. The previous record margin was set when Ed Rendell got 77% of the vote against Republican Joe Rocks in 1995.

But, the city has been trending more and more Democratic since then (if that's possible) and George Bush got only 18% of the vote in the last presidential election against John Kerry who was, let us be honest, something of a stiff. I expect Nutter to do better.

As to turnout, officially there are about 960,000 registered voters in Philadelphia (all parties), but no one takes that figure seriously. It is inflated because of federal laws that make it harder to remove inactive voters -- the ones who have died, moved out of town or simply have stopped voting -- from the voting rolls.

The real figure of voters is estimated at between 800,000 and 820,000.

How many of them do I think will show up on Tuesday? About 200,000 or less.

Of course, Michael Nutter would like to see voter turnout higher and has been running ads to try to juice it. Why?

This from Harris Sokoloff, who has designed the citizen dialogue for Great Expectations. Harris is director of the Penn Project on Civic Engagement:

One question many Philadelphians are asking is “Why should I vote?”

After all, in Philadelphia, those registered “Democratic” outnumber those registered “Republican” more than four to one, and much more for those registered other ways. Democrats might think they don’t need to vote because they so outnumber their opponents. Republicans might think their vote is worthless because they are so outnumbered. In fact, Democrats and Republicans alike have been talking about Michael Nutter as the “presumptive Mayor” for weeks. Council elections don't seem much more competitive, although Republicans' votes will decide which of their five at-large candidates get the two at-large seats allotted for their party as a minimum.

So, why vote? Why waste your time, when there is so much else to do? What difference can my one vote make?

If the only reason to vote were to influence the outcome of the election, then there may be little incentive to vote other than the not-insignificant principle that the vote is a key privilege of citizenship in a democracy.

But deciding who wins an election is not the only reason to vote, particularly not in this election.

If the primary and the election has been about anything, they were about about Philadelphians' expectations that the future can be better than the recent past, that the status quo – whether it be pay-to-play or government workers for whom services is a dirty word – must change. It’s been an election about hope and optimism that Philadelphia is, indeed, on the brink of becoming the next great city and that we can all be part of making that a reality.

So, when asked “Why vote?” my answer is that we vote to bolster those expectations that things can and will get better. Our votes are a sign of optimism that things can change and the larger the vote, the greater the optimism and positive energy for change.

Harris Sokoloff

Headed to the poll for Election Day? Tell us about your experience. We want to hear about anything interesting or out of the ordinary. Or, let us know about the election goings on in your neighborhood.

The comment area is open ...

You've cast your vote. Now, it's time to tell the next mayor the direction in which you want your city and region to head. Great Expectations has crafted a draft of a Citizens Agenda based on the 12 issues featured in our Challenges Ahead series. We want your imput before it's complete.

Join us from noon to 5 p.m. Dec. 2 at the Convention Center to create our civic vision. Lunch will be provided, and Michael Nutter will provide the keynote address.

Space is limited, and signup is required. Let us know you want to attend by calling 215-854-5956 or go online at http://www.greatexpectations07.com/node/238.

After many months of politicking, and many millions in political spending, Philadelphia has its mayor-elect: Michael Nutter.

Even though that result has been 100 percent predictable for more than five months, Tuesday made if official - and that's a notable milestone.

Political junkies were bored by the fall election; they thought the May Democratic primary was the interesting part.

But for people who care about issues, who live the issues at rowhouse level, the really interesting, the really important, the really exciting part begins right now. The part where the people they elected get a chance to work on addressing the city's ills and realizing its promise. To all but the political junkie, that's what really matters.

For the citizens who have given their time, their ideas and their passion to this Great Expectations project, Nutter's election is a hopeful moment.

I was wrong and I'm gender-neutral human enough to admit it.
On Tuesday, I predicted that the turnout would be lousy and fewer than 200,000 would vote.
Wrong.
The final returns are not in (the unofficial vote is at 97% of divisions reporting and holding) but it looks like a lot more than 200,000 Philadelphians voted. It looks as the final vote for mayor will total about 271,000 or perhaps a shade higher.
On the other hand, I was much closer in predicting that Michael Nutter would win with 84% of the vote. As of this morning, he is at 83%. This is higher than the previous record, the 77% that Ed Rendell got in 1995.
A word about turnout: It actually wasn't bad at all, given the lack of a contest. When measured against the official total of voters -- about 960,000 -- it will equal about a 28% turnout rate.
But, if you consider that the true number of voters -- i.e., the ones who are actually here, as opposed to dead or moved -- turnout comes closer to 33%.
In short, about one-third of Philly voters showed up, even though there were no real local races. That has to make Mayor-elect Nutter (at last, we can official give him that tag) happy.
He was the one who invested in ads to juice turnout and the tactic appears to have worked.

-- Tom Ferrick Jr.

Earlier this year, Tom Ferrick Jr. sat down with Rob Dubow as part of the "Talking with Tom" series. Today, Mayor-elect Michael Nutter has named Dubow, who is executive director of PICA -- the state board that oversees Philadelphia's budget, as the city's next director of finance.

Dubow led the budget office under Mayor Street and knows the inside story on the city's budget. Listen in as Dubow outlines some of the budget problems the next mayor will face during the first year in office. He also discusses long-term trends when it comes to spending and taxation in Philadelphia.

Our friends over at PennPraxis are about to launch their ideas for the waterfront.

If you're interested in how the city will develop that area, please consider joining them:

The PennPraxis presentation of the Civic Vision for the Central Delaware is set for Wednesday, Nov. 14, at 6 p.m. at the Pennsylvania Convention Center. Please register today.

Check this site between 6 and 8 p.m. tonight for a live blog from the PennPraxis presentation of the "Civic Vision for the Central Delaware." The group has spent a year crafting a plan for the city's waterfront. Now, learn the results.

More than 1,400 people have registered to attend tonight's event, which will showcase "A civic vision for the Central Delaware." The presentation is designed to bring together the work of the Central Delaware Advisory Group, PennPraxis and others as they look toward the future development of the Delaware Waterfront.

Space is filling up quickly, and people, with caffeine and soft pretzels in hand, are already heading into the second conference room.

Throughout this evening, we'll be posting impressions and thoughts from the PlanPhilly reporters covering the event. They include Alan Jaffe, Matt Blanchard, Kellie Patrick Gates, John Davidson, Natalie Pompilio and Steve Ujifusa.

Let's get started.

From Kellie Patrick Gates:

Even before the Penn Praxis event started, Anne Dicker – who co-founded Casino-Free Philadelphia but left to launch her campaign for State Sen.Vince Fumo’s seat - emailed her thoughts to reporters.

She likes the overall riverfront vision, but endorses only the version that does not include a casino. Penn Praxis also drew up plans with the two casinos that are planned for the waterfront, but face significant opposition.

"The Penn Praxis plan is the key to making Philadelphia the next great American city. I wholeheartedly agree with the principles laid out in the proposal, and the open and transparent process which led to the final document,” she wrote. “Although, while I support the overall vision, I believe that building casinos along the Delaware undermines some of the core benefits. Therefore, I specifically endorse the no-build, or casino-free, option; and will continue to fight to keep casinos away from our home, schools, playgrounds and the streets where our children play. “

Dicker, who will run against Fumo in the 2008 Democratic primary, said if she wins his seat, she’ll work to fund the Central Delaware project.

After an opening video, Philadelphia Councilman Frank DiCicco welcomed participants to the "Civic Vision for the Central Delaware" event. He was followed by Mayor Street. Currently speaking is Harris Steinberg of PennPraxis, as he begins the actual presentation.

Filling out the evening will be remarks from Michael DeBerardinis, secretary of the state Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, followed by a panel discussion and Q&A. The panel will be moderated by Chris Satullo of The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Great Expectations project. Members are scheduled to include DiBeradinis, Steinberg, Bart Blatstein of Tower Investments, Rina Cutler of PennDot and Steven Weixler of the Society Hill Civic Association.

From Kellie Patrick Gates:

As the event opened, PennPraxis' Harris Steinberg, clearly pleased with turnout, said, "Please go next door [to the overflow room] if you can so the fire marshal doesn't shut us down."

Next up was City Councilman Frank DiCicco, who helped spearhead the planning effort. He said, "Tonight and the past 12 to 13 months that brought us to tonight are really the highlight of my political career."

Then, just as an introductory video concluded and the audience burst into applause, Mayor John Street entered the room and took the stage. Steinberg said, "The mayor has impeccable timing."

Street, who will soon be leaving office, reflected back to the beginning of his time as mayor. "The thing people said to me more than anything else was 'Get rid of the abandoned cars off the streets of Philadelphia.'' He continued, "It's hard to believe eight years later that the city has come to the point where it's thinking optimistically about the future."

The panel discussion is about to get under way. As people begin to filter out after the main presentation, several people have asked for copies of the report, and even offered to buy a copy.

For anyone interested in seeing the Civic Vision proposal that is the focus of the evening, it's online at http://www.planphilly.com/vision. For background on the project or to learn more about waterfront development, the PlanPhilly Web site provides a wealth of information.

From Matt Golas:

In reacting to the visioning, PennDot's Rina Cutler said, "We should look for short-term gains such as public transit infrastructure on the waterfront instead of worrying about burying I-95." Cutler and PennDot are currently in the midst of reconstructing the Girard Avenue interchange on I-95 and are weighing various ways to create green space around that reconstruction.

From Natalie Pompelio:

Springfield resident Mike D'onofrio, 62, said he was pleasantly surprised from the moment he walked into the main room: 900 chairs were filled, people were standing along the walls, another group had spilled into a side chamber.

"I was shocked going in," he said. "You don't get this many people for anything."

He was impressed by the plan. The city, he said, has gotten better every year for the past 15 years, "but the one thing they had neglected addressing was the waterfront," he said. "We travel all over the world and in every successful city, there's a vibrant waterfront." A key factor for the Delaware's development is safety, he said, and the current proposal -- keeping the arae busy with parks, homes and businesses -- would make it so.

D'onofrio said he was also impressed by how the plan was made. "They really did ask people. That's what got me," he said. "I could never be that detail oriented. It could take 50 years, but they've got to start today."

From Kellie Patrick Gates:

In the moment before everyone rose to leave for the evening, a member of Casino Free Philadelphia stood and shouted that everyone should return to the Convention Center for tomorrow's Commerce Department hearing on whether to grant Sugar House Casino riparian rights. (The hearing is at 2 p.m.)

The casino issue loomed large over the entire meeting. When Harris Steinberg present the plan he said that the most contentious part was the development piece. "We know there are many people who do not want casinos," he said. Someone in the crowd yelled, "It's not an option." And then from elsewhere, "Yes, it is." Leading the anti-casino speaker to yell back an expletive.

Steinberg said: "Let's get through the next couple of slides without this room erupting."

From Steve Ujifusa:

Some quotes from citizen attendees -
One person from the East Passyunk Crossing and the Philadelphia Neighborhood Association said, "The plan is brilliant. It's a celebration of William Penn's plan for the city and society he believe in, but the nature of casinos are not compatible with the concept of the vision plan."

A person from the Northern Liberties Neighborhood Association said initially he was critical of the process but "no one can deny that Praxis has listened to the concern of the community. This is a legitimate process and vision and the beginning of a legitimate plan."

"The plan does not turn Philadelphia's Colonial and industrial history into a Disneyland. It embraces them while looking into the future," he continued.

From Kellie Patrick Gates:
What started with an animated video of the possible future of the Central Delware waterfront ended two hours and 15 minutes later with an equally animated question and answer session. People guiding the vision, including Mayor Street, Councilman Frank DiCicco, PennDot's Rina Cutler and developer Bart Blatstein fielded questions from the audience about what could be done - and what should not be done - to make the vision reality. Casinos were the constant undercurrent.
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You can read the Civic Vision for the Central Delaware in full at www.planphilly.com.

Also, the next big civic event will be the Great Expectation's Citizens Convention on Dec. 2. Space is filling quickly. Register now!

The Inquirer reports that Mayor-elect Michael Nutter has named former Washington, D.C., police chief Charles H. Ramsey as the city's next police commissioner.

Not surprisingly, crime fighting and violence were identified by citizens as one of their top concerns during our neighborhood forums earlier this year. As such, they were featured issues in the Great Expectation's "Challenges Ahead" series. Read the segment on crime here.

What characteristics do think the next top cop should have? Any suggestions on what he should tackle first?

Michael Nutter's appointment of Chuck Ramsey to head the Philadelphia police department is a good example of how life imitates baseball.
First, there is the pattern of nice guy-tough guy that regularly happens in rotating baseball managers. The Phils go from Larry Bowa (one tough S.O.B.) to Charlie Manuel (sweet guy.)
Second, there is the pattern of insider-outsider. The decision clubs must always make in awarding the manager's job to someone from within the organization or someone from the outside. Manuel is from the outside. Bowa was home-grown talent.
So, we had John Timoney (outsider, tough guy) replaced by Sylvester Johnson (insider, nice guy) replaced by Chuck Ramsay, the outsider. Whether he's a tough guy or a nice guy is too early to say, but I am betting he will shake things up in the department.
Ramsey is also good at public relations (too good, in the eyes of some of his detractors). PR wasn't Johnson's strong point. Reporters gave him the nickname "Mumbles" after the Dick Tracy character noted for saying a lot, but not in any way that could be understood.

Harris Sokoloff, who as head of the Penn Project for Civic Engagement, has designed and led the civic dialogues for Great Expectations and the Central Delaware civic visioning project, reflects on those two experiences:

The presentation of the Civic Vision for the Central Delaware on Nov. 14 was a huge success, with more that 1,500 citizens attending the presentation and celebrating both the Vision as well as the civic engagement process that gave rise to it.

As Harris Steinberg of Penn Praxis, which wrote the document, noted, the work of citizens – their values and values based design principles – informed the work of the design professionals who pulled together the plan. Citizen work was the touchstone for the vision – grounding it in what Philadelphians’ care about. Meanwhile, citizens who took part learned from the experts about what’s possible on an urban waterfront..

The process was truly a blending of citizen and professional expertise.

Throughout the riverfront dialogues, we’ve learned a great deal about citizen interest and capacity for substantive engagement, including these points:

Today, the Citizens Agenda for Philadelphia's Future, the culminating product of the Great Expectations project for this year, was published online at www.greatexpectations07.com.

Also, the first installment of a six-part presentation of the Agenda in the ink-and-paper Inquirer appeared in the Sunday Currents section. During the week, the issue by issue rollout of the Agenda will appear on the local Commentary page, B2.

Every day as the Agenda is unveiled, we'll post an open thread for your comments on the issues covered in that day's print Inquirer. (If you want to comment on other parts of the agenda ahead of their print publication dates, that's fine, too. Go ahead. And don't forget the Citizens Convention to review the Agenda next Sunday at the Convention Center.http://www.greatexpectations07.com/convention)

Today's issues in Currents were Education and Knowledge Economy. They were paired for obvious reasons; together, they speak to the fact that any vibrant region is focused on providing educational opportunity and skill training to its citizens at every point from preschool to post-college. We expect the Education agenda to stir some debate; in the end, we chose not to go with the popular notion that the city should take its schools back fully from the state.

This thread is to receive your comments about the second installment of the Citizens Agenda for Philadelphia's Future, which was published in The Inquirer today (Monday) and is available in expanded version on the project Web site www.greatexpectations07.com

A few words about the Taxes/Budget section:

The No. 1 Priority listed there, continuing aggressive wage and business tax cuts, is one of a few instances where the Agenda actually goes contrary to the input of many of the citizens who attended forums. (Wage tax cuts were mostly popular, but business tax cuts were not. The abatement for new construction was widely regarded as unfair, as unearned candy for developers.)

Click the link to read a little explanation for our decision. Or, if you prefer, skip it and just write in your own comments:

The issues for the Citizens Agenda today (Tuesday) are Planning and Zoning and the Environment. Please feel invited to offer your comments and critiques on this thread.

These issues are ones where the agenda sings in unison with the bulk of citizen comment received throughout the year. In 2007, these topics received an unprecedented amount of attention from a populace sick of how the pay-to-play, deal-making culture of the city often supersedes community interest in development decisions. Equally energized were people captivated by the prospect of Philly recapturing its legacy as a green country town.

A note of gratitude: These two issue agendas, as with all 12 of them, are based on the input not only of ordinary citizens, but of experts, leaders and advocates on these issues. Many people in positions of local leadership have given generously of their time to help us figure out what ideas and solutions held the most promise of upholding the values enunciated by citizens.

The Great Expectations staffers who pulled together the agenda are indebted to these leaders for their help and guidance. These sources, from whom we borrowed eagerly and shamelessly, deserve much of the credit for anything you see that you like in this work; anything you don't like, don't blame them. Blame us.

As we roll out the Citizens Agenda for Philadelphia's Future in print in the daily Inquirer, with the issues appearing two at a time, some pairings are more obvious than others. Education and Knowledge Economy were obvious, as were City Budget & Taxes with City Services.

The duo for today (Wednesday) might seem to offer a little less of a slam-dunk linkage.

The issues for today (Thursday) are in contrast.

The constellation of trends and concerns that we've gathered under the heading Neighborhoods in Flux is tremendously complex. This is one of the gnarliest, most emotional, least understood issues that the Agenda addresses. And it is one whose dimensions and visceral pop emerged (for me, at least) as the biggest surprise out of the forums we did last winter around the city, hitting 30 neighborhoods in 30 nights. I had little idea before those sessions that the prospect of rising property values and new neighbors with nice incomes was cause for such high anxiety for so many. But night after night of hearing people say their biggest fear was "more condos" kind of drove the message home.

The action steps for this issue include some interesting ideas, but I have no doubt that this part of the Agenda falls short of addressing the full nuances and possibilities of the topic. There's so much more that could be said or done on the issue of helping neighborhoods in transition cope, and on the goal of fostering stable, diverse, mixed-income neighborhoods.

Today's presentation in The Inquirer wraps up the publication of the draft Citizens Agenda.

Now, the document is ready for its closeup: The Citizens Convention Sunday at the Convention Center, at which more than 500 people will gather to hear Michael Nutter speak and to give their feedback on the agenda.

On this comment thread, we invite your thoughts on the last two pieces of the Agenda to be published in The Inquirer. The pairing of these two is obvious, perhaps inevitable: Crime and Poverty. You'll notice at a glance that there is a strong family resemblance between the No. 1 Priorites cited for both issues; both involve targeting limited resources at the group mostly likely to be both victims and perpetrators of violent crime, and most likely to suffer the many social ills associated with poverty: young, minority males.

We're aware that the candor of ascribing the core problem to one group may be distressing to some people. If so, please let us know that and what you would propose as a No. 1 Priority instead.