So, the big question among political insiders is not who is going to win tomorrow's election for mayor but by how much. And exactly how many voters will show up to vote?
Let me role out my prediction, for what it's worth, and feel free to add your own.
For starters, I think Nutter wins with 84% of the vote, with Al Taubenberger getting 16%. That will be a new record if it comes to pass. The previous record margin was set when Ed Rendell got 77% of the vote against Republican Joe Rocks in 1995.
But, the city has been trending more and more Democratic since then (if that's possible) and George Bush got only 18% of the vote in the last presidential election against John Kerry who was, let us be honest, something of a stiff. I expect Nutter to do better.
As to turnout, officially there are about 960,000 registered voters in Philadelphia (all parties), but no one takes that figure seriously. It is inflated because of federal laws that make it harder to remove inactive voters -- the ones who have died, moved out of town or simply have stopped voting -- from the voting rolls.
The real figure of voters is estimated at between 800,000 and 820,000.
How many of them do I think will show up on Tuesday? About 200,000 or less.
Of course, Michael Nutter would like to see voter turnout higher and has been running ads to try to juice it. Why?
A couple of reasons: Nutter needs and wants a mandate and a higher vote total shows doubters that there is enthusiasm for his candidacy.
Second, it is to enhance Philadelphia's rep in statewide politics. There are key races underway for state appeals courts, specifically for the Supreme and Superiors Courts.
A decent Philly turnout will bolster the chances of the Democrats running for those courts. An anemic turnout helps the Republican candidates.
Why is it important to party people whether a Republican or Democrat justice sits on the Supreme Court? Well, it helps to keep in mind that the Supreme Court is also the administrative agency for all state courts -- especially the 67 county court systems. Court jobs in Philly and elsewhere are often patronage jobs. Having, say, a Democratic court administrator, helps in that cause.
On another level, who sits as Justice is important to various interest groups. The trial lawyers, for instance, want to see a justice who favors the current tort system. Labor unions want a justice who smiles upon organized labor.
You can find out who supports whom by looking at their campaign finance reports.
As Emily Lounsberry reports in The Inquirer today, these court races have been expensive this year -- and are likely to get more so. You can link to her article here.
-- Tom Ferrick
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