I was wrong and I'm gender-neutral human enough to admit it.
On Tuesday, I predicted that the turnout would be lousy and fewer than 200,000 would vote.
Wrong.
The final returns are not in (the unofficial vote is at 97% of divisions reporting and holding) but it looks like a lot more than 200,000 Philadelphians voted. It looks as the final vote for mayor will total about 271,000 or perhaps a shade higher.
On the other hand, I was much closer in predicting that Michael Nutter would win with 84% of the vote. As of this morning, he is at 83%. This is higher than the previous record, the 77% that Ed Rendell got in 1995.
A word about turnout: It actually wasn't bad at all, given the lack of a contest. When measured against the official total of voters -- about 960,000 -- it will equal about a 28% turnout rate.
But, if you consider that the true number of voters -- i.e., the ones who are actually here, as opposed to dead or moved -- turnout comes closer to 33%.
In short, about one-third of Philly voters showed up, even though there were no real local races. That has to make Mayor-elect Nutter (at last, we can official give him that tag) happy.
He was the one who invested in ads to juice turnout and the tactic appears to have worked.
-- Tom Ferrick Jr.
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How Many Will Vote? Part Two
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Authors
Great Expectations is a civic engagement project brought to you by The Inquirer and the University of Pennsylvania. Check out the Great Expectations Web site.
Chris Satullo is an Inquirer columnist and former editor of The Inquirer's Editorial Page. He was a founder of the Great Expectations project, which focuses on civic engagement and the issues in Philadelphia's 2007 mayoral race.
Tom Ferrick, a former Inquirer reporter, worked on the Great Expectations project throughout 2007 and into 2008.Other members of the Editorial Board will be weighing in on the blog, as will Harris Sokoloff and Jodie Chester Lowe, members of the Great Expectations team.
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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on November 7, 2007 8:47 AM.
The previous post in this blog was Congratulations, Mayor Nutter.
The next post in this blog is Tom Ferrick Jr.: Podcast with the city's next finance director.
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Comments (3)
I guess you are right when you look at the context of recent history, etc. Still, I am saddened and worried about our city and our country when we can say that a voter turnout of anything below 50% is "good".
Posted by Sue Badeau | November 7, 2007 12:03 PM
Posted on November 7, 2007 12:03
I didn't turn out because of Nutter's ad about Bush and Cheney. I think this mayoral election has little effect on Washington. It seemed humorous that Nutter would take a "stick it to the man" approach, which so doesn't suit who he is.
But I don't mind, because he ran such an exemplary campain, as did Taubenberger. WE really needed to see that Philly isn't Philthadelphia in all matters, esp. after the murder and mayhem of the past month.
For that, I wanted to express my support, and plus, weigh in on the judges and city council. Plus, the ballot items are always important to vote on, even though I voted "against" for the sake of a government we can afford.
I'm not surprised that the turnout was better than anticipated. Philly is not shallow, even if undereducated compared to our similarly sized cousin cities.
The right to vote is still considered very much a right here. Only the most cynical and exhausted skip it.
Posted by Anonymous | November 7, 2007 5:20 PM
Posted on November 7, 2007 17:20
People are not interested in elections enough if they don't know who is going to be on the ballot and what they are about.
That is the whole problem with judicial retention races -- neither the parties nor the press really puts that that much into getting to know the candidates.
People are mostly so true blue that they don't want to pretend to vote if they don't know enough about the person. People like to feel that they are knowledgable voters, and if they don't, they will avoid voting "this go round."
Posted by Anonymous | November 7, 2007 5:22 PM
Posted on November 7, 2007 17:22